Do you believe the polls?
By Dr. Harold A. Black
blackh@knoxfocus.com
haroldblackphd.com
Today’s political headlines tell us that Donald Trump will most likely be the Republican nominee and that all other contenders might as well quit the race. The polls show that Trump has a commanding lead over Ron DeSantis who seems to be fading fast. One poll has DeSantis barely above Chris Christie – who most people give virtually no chance of being the party’s nominee. Other indicators point to Tim Scott whose nomination some pundits state would demonstrate that the Republican party is not composed of a bunch of knuckle-dragging, gun-happy bunch of homophobes, xenophobes, transphobes, anti-abortion racist bigots. Of course, that same crowd calls black conservatives like Scott, Tom Sowell, Bob Woodson, Jason Riley and Clarence Thomas (among many others) as Uncle Toms and black faces of white supremacy.
It is a wonder that anyone believes what comes from the media these days. Their narratives are seldom factual. The presidential polls are case in point. If the media is to be believed, then why vote? Isn’t the nomination process over with Trump and Biden redux? Why waste billions of dollars campaigning? Indeed, why even have the election? Just compare the polling numbers for the two leaders and declare the winner right now.
The reason why we actually go through the nominating process is that the early polls have often been wrong. In 1972 Edmund Muskie led George McGovern by 18 points. In 1976 Hubert Humphrey led Jimmy Carter. In 1988 Gary Hart led Michel Dukakis by 13 points. In 1992 Jerry Brown led Bill Clinton by 15 points. Remember Howard Dean? He led John Kerry by 15 points in 2004. 2008 had Rudy Guiliani over John McCain and Hillary Clinton with a 29-point lead over Barack Obama. In 2012 Herman Cain had a lead of three points over Mitt Romney.
So there is a good reason not to declare a winner based on early polling. Political polling is taking a small sample of people. Sometimes they look at registered voters. Sometimes not. Generally, the polls do not sample according to a meaningful distribution of voters: urban vs suburban, Democrat versus Republican, conservative versus liberal. Often when the sample is analyzed it is revealed that the pollsters have created a sample intended to yield a particular result. Most polls have a sample less of than 2,000. Only the Pew Research Poll samples as many as 5,000 people. So pardon me if I remain a skeptic as to the validity of polling.
The Democrats want very desperately for Donald Trump to be the nominee running against Biden – although I doubt if Biden will be the Democrats’ nominee. To that end, they have done all they can to make Trump a sympathetic figure among the Republican primary voters. The indictments, defamation lawsuits, the raid at Mar-a-largo, the investigations, the tax returns, the January 6 sideshow, the civil suits, and the New York and Georgia probes have all been aimed at getting Trump the nomination. The media polls are part and parcel of this effort by the Democrats to enshrine Trump as the Republican nominee. Bernie Sanders openly said, “that as a politician who wants to see that no Republican is elected to the White House in 2024, from that perspective, his (Trump’s) candidacy is probably a good thing.”
Trump’s unfavorable rating is 58% while Biden’s is 62% in a recent poll. It seems like Americans want neither to be the nominee and neither to be president. Trump was – and continues to be – his own worst enemy. Slinging insults and ridiculing others do not generally endear you to the voting public. Biden also has been his own worst enemy, stumbling and bumbling through his presidency showing physical and mental impairment while embracing the leftist socialist agenda. Afghanistan, the border, inflation, critical race theory, the woke military, transgenderism, LGBTQ along with energy/climate change dictates destined to make America poorer and dependent upon China are not generally the way to win elections. Ironically, Biden has done such an awful job that the head-to-head polls now show Trump beating Biden. So be careful for what you wish.
Surely, America can do better.
